Wang Xizhe is a prominent (pro-democracy) dissident from China. He has spent more than 10 years in jail in China. He had a history of not singing with the crowd.
He has a prediction, that the life of the "HK Alliance" (in support for patriotic democracy movement of China) is numbered, due to a series of strategic mistakes. (HT and English translation). For the most recent example, he argued, The HKA has not been entirely tactful in its joining the protest against the Olympic Torch Relay in HK. Because this alienates its supporters (most of them, are "patriotic" and at the same time pro-democratic). He suggested by this year's date of 8x8 the turn-out number will reduce significantly.
I agree with his conclusion. But I am skeptical about the 'test' he suggested. Because
1) What can be alienated has been alienated, many times, and long ago. e.g. by the infamous statement Martin Lee made after the Belgrade Emabssy Fiasco. Lee defended the US bombing and faulted the Chinese within hours of the protests, acting as if he had more information than anyone else (quite unscrupulous for a successful barrister). So there is really no incremental difference that can be observed this year.
2) The "HKA" is not really a political party as Wang said (or wanted it to be). It is more of an idealist group than some organization that was established to achieve a clear political agenda. But Wang was right that its most recent action did not show clear alignment with its proclaimed ideal "patriotic democracy movement of China"
Perhaps Wang is right. That the "reminder" effect may still be significant. We will see in less than a month.
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