Georgia - Taiwan

Cominganarchy draws the Georgia lesson to Taiwan

• ...But that only works as long as no one calls a bluff. In 1996, after China launched so-called “test” missiles toward Taiwan to intimidate the country and influence the election, President Clinton sent two aircraft carriers to the area. The appearance of resolve by the US to defend a small democratic nation appeared solid. Would the same support materialize today? As deterence, probably. But what about after an invasion had begun? The experience in Russia suggests otherwise

Fortunately Mr Shui-bian Saakashvili Chen lost the election, and fortunately the more pragmatic (though no less corrupt nor more competent historically -- hope Dr. Ma will cure that) KMT were in control of the Legislative Yuan, otherwise we could have been hearing a lot more gun fire around the Taiwan Strait than in the Caucasus.

As Cominganarchy pointed out, "plenty of analysts" connects the Georgia lesson with Taiwan, i.e. regarding the reaction of the mighty America.

plus Thomas Barnett :

• For now, the Bush-McCain-Obama calls for cease-fire seem the logical course, but I see no easy fixes. These little breakaway bits (along with others) are sort of Russia's post-Soviet "Taiwan"--something it likes to get all jacked about but essentially harmless to the wider security world (in the sense that no one is really going to go to the mattresses over Abkhazia or South Ossetia). China's got its route on Taiwan (full of indirectness) and Russia's got its centuries-old approach.

I wonder what Mr Kaplan has to say, not that it matters though, just curious.