I have been very cautious when asked about the election in Taiwan all these times. I thought Ma Ying-jeou should win, and will most likely win. But the DPP election machine and strategy has worked very well in the past 8 years, and no one can really be sure.
More importantly, it is the trend of 'localization' that have put MYJ/blue in a disadvantageous position. In words, the new generation, who are borned and raised in Taiwan, will inevitably find the Green's "local appeal" more appealing. Every 4 years, there are some 3-4% of the total population becoming eligible to vote. It is this cohort of newly mint voters who has shifted (and will continue to shift) the election balance. Just like Russia in WWII, with the endless suplly of cossacks and tanks from Siberia, Russia had finally defeated Nazi Germany. This younger cohort of voters has been the cossacks for DPP -- as long as DPP can maintain its appeal to the young generation.
However, things have changed over the last few months. MYJ has taken one very important and strategic step, by taking the middle path of being ambiguous about the sensitive topic of unification vs independence, and declared it is the people who can decide.
With this important shift in 'ideology', Ma has finally won the support of "All People Clan" (全民计程车, aka Chuang Min）, which is a major taxi driver organization in Taipei. Taipei has always been a KMT and pan-Blue base, one can say that Chuang Min is only a minor player. However, if you have been to Taiwan for the past 15 years, you will know how "deep green" Chuang Min has been. These die hard supporters have been fighting (literally, with bartons and fist) with the blue supporting drivers, and they will kick you off their cab if you fail their test in your conversation. When I first went to Taiwan, people warned me not to answer any question regarding politics a taxi driver may ask, if I did not want to be beated up. They were warning me of Chuang Min and told me to watch out for their flag.
The significance of the change of mind by Chuang Min is profound. It means
1) CSB has actually turned off quite some deep green supporters
2) in the Chuang Min statement, they said it was the economy that made them abandoned DPP. If that applies elsewhere over the island, I believe many others will reason in similar way.
3) Most importantly, this shows that MYJ has successfully shifted to the center, and was able to win some green supporters (not only the colorless voters)
This is the first real indication that MYJ will win.
It is time to be bullish on Taiwan's stock market. The Taiwanese business will finally be able to ride the China boom.