Great posts - and critical thinking in HK

I have not updated my reading list for a while. The mainly reason is that I have been too busy these days, no time to read, no time to put the link even if I had read.

However, if you note the upper right corner of my blog, you could still see that I have updated the readling list from time to time.

Today, there were 2 great posts (both in Chinese) that I would like to recommend. I had wanted to write about these 2 issues for quite some time, and am glad that I do not have to now. There are some critical writers in HK.

1) The ugly fact under the Education Institute Controversy
2) Is Christine Luk stupid, or ?

The first post by Yellow Cow is perhaps THE best analysis I have read in HK media recently, published on Apple Daily today. It revealed the ugly dirty secret of the Professional Teachers' Association in Hong Kong, led by democrat Chueng Man Kong, and addressed almost all the problems of the education system in HK just in about 1000 words. It is simply a brilliant summary of all you need to know about HK. (But beware of this yellow cow, most of the other time he acts like a Bush mouth piece / WSJ Op-ed propaganda machine)

The second link about some ridiculous propaganda from a HK think tank, headed by democrat Christine Luk. Ms Luk is a British trained lawyer, and also a veteran commodity trader who traded commodity perhaps before the famed Apple Daily Petroleum Analyst Pakman was born. :). She is definitely not stupid. So why did she made such an obvious mistake? What is her motive?

So much noise, and I thought no one would speak out in HK. I am glad that the people in HK are not all blind and have cirtical minds.

Lastly, talking about local media, on Tuesday's column (June 26 - I have the pdf format but do not know how to convert into jpg or post here - please advise) Lam Hang-chi of HK Economic Journal wrote about the (pseduo)-"coincidence" that many great economists are trained in some other disciplines, mostly in maths or physics. I do have one theory, viz, undergraduate economic textbooks are simple dull and boring. It is hard for such course to attract the brightest minds. I sat in a few undergraduate economic classes at one of the very top Ivy League college taught by star professors, I wanted to sleep. I tried to read Economic textbooks, I never really gone pass the demand/supply curve chapters.

Lam made a small factual error though. He said the only couple that both won Nobel prize is Mr and Mrs Myrdal, in Economic and Peace. Not true. Mr and Mrs Curie shared the Physics Prize in 1903. In fact the Curie family collect 4 medals together. Lam also forgot the now famous John Nash, who is not only not trained as an economist, but never been a real economist.

Now really lastly, The is a quote for the critical minds, including to the 2 writers in the posts above, who dare to speak out against the mediocre minds. By our dear friend Albert,

• "Great spirits have always encountered opposition from mediocre minds. The mediocre mind is incapable of understanding the man who refuses to bow blindly to conventional prejudices and chooses instead to express his opinions courageously and honestly. "
  

p.s.
1) There are quite a number of thing I do not agree with these writers/bloggers. For example, the plastic bag tax controversy. But I admire the fact that they are rational and can think and shout despite the mediocre noise over the atmosphere in HK
2) I am glad that Apple Daily is courageous enough to publish these 2 great essays on the same day, both are critical of Jimmy Lai's political allies, the democrats. Kudos to Mr Lai, or more precisely, the AD editor. I have to say, AD has recovered from the Liu Kinming fiasco and regained credibility and my respect. I am sure it will be much more effective media to achieve whatever Mr Lai wants to achieve, by being rational, fair, factual, and balanced.
3) To illustrate why it is important to read critically, read this timely link via ESWN.

Juxtaposition: We are all _______

Here is the juxtaposition

A) Kill Us, Too: We Are Also Americans
B) Kill Us, Too: We Are Also Al Qaeda (Get a salon site pass and click on this link again)

Except that,
1) it took millions of Americans - the great men who wrote the constitution, Abraham Lincoln, millions who died in the two world wars to liberate the world - more than 200 years to win the good will of Mr. Aslam Abdullah to say (A), voluntarily.
2) it took just a few cone-heads from Washington to -- to force the 27.6M Iraqi, and potentially much more in the neighboring countries to say (B), involuntarily, but they were given no other option

Can't find our enemy? create some so that we have a war to fight. This is the dreamland for arms dealers.

How was Sun Zi taught in West Point? Go figure.

"Take Advantage Of Employment Discrimination"

China Law Blog has a very interesting post: Take Advantage Of "China's Rampant Employment Discrimination"

Well, I would say, "Take Advantage Of Employment Discrimination", anywhere in this world that there is discrimination. Though I also agree with CLB that it is indeed rampant in China -- just look at the unisex restaurants and unisex factory floors (even though one could argue that there is cost reduction due to easy management for unisex factory, i doubt if the benefit outweighs the cost).

There are, however, a couple points to add

• CLB said, 'Another discrimination in China is against "villagers" without a degree from one of China's top two or three universities. Another opportunity.' -- I do not quite agree. First, we see the same brand premium in US (Ivy Leage and Stanford) and UK (Oxbridge) and the average quality from the premium brands are indeed higher. Second, it is true that there are 'arbitrage' opportunity from the "villager" graduates, but this is not without costs, i.e., more time to select the right candidate due to lower average success rate. But I do agree with CLB, if you spot one, grab him! (Digression: the beauty of the Chinese language is that there was no gender in the 3rd person - "彼or 他", until the turn of last century during May-4 movement when "它/她" were created, plus the ridiculous 牛也 (the god belongs to the gender of cow!). Anyway, we used to enjoy the absence of stupid political correctness in terms of "him/her" or "s/he" or "chairperson". If you understand 禅(Zen in Japanese) or heard about the story of 3 monks bumped into a nude girl, you would understand what I mean.)
• Yes, there is arbitrage if one does not discriminate, because the cost of recruitment is lower (one finds the right candidate quicker, statistically). However, if one is going to pay the same amount for others, one is not exploiting the arbitrage fully. To exploit the arbitrage fully one would only have to pay a small premium over the market rate, which is usually still lower than what the "true" value of the candidate is. This does solve one major problem, i.e., the case when some are unemployed due to discrimination
• I know what I said above in politically incorrect, but that is the reality of this world. However, without facing the reality one cannot really address the problem. We need to recognize that, even if one would still partially discriminate these candidates, the important thing is that we realize the TRUE value of these people. Once this is realized, one would expect more employers will join the arbitrage competition, and gradually bid up the price. The point of inflexion is when the underpivileged receives more than one job offer. To make this happen we need more employers who are willing to just pay a very small premium (or even no premium) over the current (under-rated) market price. Until, eventually or asymptotically, when there is no more arbitrage opportunity. Then the CLB mission will be accomplished.
• Therefore, even for those employer who are still paying a discount to the discriminated (but just the smallest premium over the market rate), we should encourage them and encourage more employers to follow suit. Because that is the first step toward the ultimate goal, and one must go through such first step in the long process of transition.
• The fundamentalist would criticize those who pay a small (but not enough) premium for not doing enough. I need to warn them, they are effectively hurting the discriminated they claim to protect.

Again, this applies not just to China. It applies to any other country, developed or developing. It is actually the theme of one of my old post -- China vs India. And again, the situation in China, albeit may not be the worst in this world (there are many countries that are worse), is not an excuse. It is for China's own good if this problem gets solved, even if it is partially. The larger the extent this partial solution is, the more competitive China as a nation will become.

Reading: Hong Kong's 5* academic mess

探 針 ： 「 沒 有 我 們 ， 那 有 今 天 ？ 」

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香 港 回 歸 以 前 ， 英 國 首 相 戴 卓 爾 夫 人 否 認 背 棄 香 港 人 ， 她 並 為 英 國 帝 國 主 義 辯 護 道 ： 「 我 們 把 文 明 帶 給 全 世 界 ！ 」 回 歸 日 告 別 演 說 中 查 理 斯 王 子 說 ： 「 香 港 的 歷 史 是 我 們 的 一 部 份 ， 反 之 亦 然 。 」 末 代 港 督 彭 定 康 形 容 香 港 是 「 具 有 英 國 特 色 的 、 偉 大 的 中 國 人 成 功 的 故 事 」 （ 好 幾 個 「 的 」 ） 。 回 歸 後 ， 香 港 的 痛 苦 指 數 隨 老 董 陡 升 ， 直 到 北 京 回 頭 用 彭 定 康 的 門 徒 氣 溫 才 回 暖 。

滬 商 治 港 　 絕 非 偶 然
這 豈 不 活 生 生 印 證 了 薩 伊 德 在 《 文 化 與 帝 國 》 模 仿 殖 民 者 口 說 的 話 ： 「 你 們 有 今 天 ， 全 靠 我 們 ； 沒 有 我 們 ， 你 們 就 得 回 到 蠻 荒 狀 態 ！ 」
英 國 帝 國 主 義 把 它 要 的 不 要 的 人 ， 要 的 不 要 的 制 度 ， 統 統 送 做 堆 ， 給 了 香 港 照 單 全 收 。 沒 有 「 英 國 特 色 」 沖 刷 封 建 的 毛 式 「 中 國 特 色 」 ， 今 天 的 香 港 會 不 會 像 二 十 年 前 的 海 南 島 那 樣 「 先 進 」 ？
記 得 回 歸 前 一 兩 年 ， 洪 清 田 兄 做 東 請 一 桌 好 飯 ， 一 圈 人 輪 流 猜 誰 會 出 線 當 第 一 任 特 首 。 我 脫 口 預 測 ， 是 個 「 滬 商 治 港 」 的 局 面 。 不 是 我 懂 得 掐 指 一 算 ， 而 是 想 到 港 英 工 心 計 ， 有 套 路 ， 讓 港 人 那 麼 服 帖 ， 而 中 國 人 信 奉 「 拿 來 主 義 」 ， 任 錢 其 琛 、 魯 平 、 張 浚 生 嘴 巴 再 硬 ， 祖 國 實 在 沒 有 理 由 不 繼 承 港 英 的 深 刻 遺 產 。 當 時 我 腦 中 的 影 子 是 港 大 和 中 大 ： 港 大 這 個 殖 民 官 搖 籃 的 校 長 寶 座 ， 長 期 由 英 國 人 包 辦 ， 直 到 晚 期 南 洋 華 裔 才 有 機 會 過 癮 ； 中 大 前 幾 任 校 長 多 與 上 海 有 淵 源 ， 又 有 香 港 和 倫 敦 的 育 背 景 。 如 此 巧 合 ， 絕 非 偶 然 。 因 此 我 猜 首 任 特 首 是 「 滬 」 和 「 商 」 的 組 合 。


華 裔 學 者 　 紛 紛 回 流
香 港 各 大 學 一 方 面 從 全 世 界 公 開 招 聘 師 資 ， 另 一 方 面 又 處 處 有 「 把 文 明 帶 給 世 界 」 的 遺 跡 。 以 前 有 句 名 言 ： 「 在 倫 敦 一 事 無 成 ， 到 香 港 碰 碰 運 氣 」 。 從 倫 敦 到 香 港 ， 石 頭 就 點 成 了 金 。 英 語 世 界 美 加 澳 印 各 路 人 馬 （ 也 就 是 比 香 港 更 早 獲 得 「 解 放 」 的 英 國 殖 民 地 ） ， 來 香 港 搵 食 者 ， 絡 繹 不 絕 於 途 。 跟 華 裔 學 者 紛 紛 從 美 英 回 流 。 這 就 構 造 了 香 港 各 大 學 的 風 景 線 。
朋 友 自 海 外 歸 來 ， 踏 進 自 稱 「 五 星 級 」 的 系 。 那 個 系 成 員 從 五 湖 四 海 漂 來 ， 開 起 會 來 只 聽 到 英 語 「 呱 呱 叫 」 ， 英 文 是 否 出 色 比 較 難 說 。 這 些 人 有 話 爭 講 ， 有 事 拼 命 躲 ， 從 無 新 意 ， 更 乏 建 樹 。 但 他 們 關 起 門 來 ， 互 拍 肩 膀 讚 好 ， 聽 久 了 很 難 不 把 自 己 當 一 回 事 。 直 到 有 一 天 外 人 闖 進 「 桃 花 源 」 ， 定 神 一 看 ， 原 來 是 一 群 母 雞 帶 小 雞 的 大 院 ： 徒 子 徒 孫 ， 幾 代 同 堂 ， 老 爸 退 而 不 休 ， 再 由 子 女 接 棒 ， 肥 水 不 落 外 人 田 ， 近 親 繁 殖 達 於 極 致 ； 更 有 的 找 隔 壁 同 事 當 導 師 ， 毋 須 修 課 ， 胡 亂 寫 一 篇 甚 麼 東 西 ， 居 然 鍍 金 成 為 「 博 士 」 。 學 問 大 躍 進 了 ， 卻 老 不 發 表 學 術 論 文 。 朋 友 說 ， 這 座 「 桃 花 源 」 風 景 好 ， 何 止 「 五 星 級 」 ， 評 它 「 八 星 級 」 絕 不 為 過 。 不 知 有 漢 ， 遑 論 魏 晉 ， 別 處 的 確 沒 有 見 過 。

李 金 銓
城 市 大 學 教授

Superboys in Taiwan -- Super Avenue of Stars

Sorry, too busy to blog. But I would recommend this post by Sidekick.
溏心風暴的星光大道 (ESWN translation in English)
Related: How Pfizer's Viagra sales skyrocketed in HK

Supergirl finally got a sequel. It is called "Super Avenue of Stars", a similar singing contest in Taiwan, produced by Huang Zongwei, the producer of the celebrated Mengguo.

The key element that deviates from Supergirl is that in SAS there is a challenger session, where the challenger can pick one of the finalists and replace him. The germ in SAS is that there is a really good challenger, who is arguably as good as or even better than the best incumbent. He chose to fight the toughest battle, by choosing to challenge the incumbent leader and sing the song the incumbent has sang, winning 2 round before lost in a controversial final round of challenge, and -- you got it right, CRIED! That was a touching scene. The common theme for the Supergirls and Superboys is that they all like to cry.

Because of this show, an old song became a new hit in Taiwan.






The preliminary round of challenge


---
Mengguo is quick to spoof






There is more in Taiwan than corrupted politicians, political bickering, or dumb money diplomacy. It is still a beautiful island.

This is causality

There is a legend among Oxford students, where degrees and honours are determined by a final examination of 6-8 3-hour exams in the final year summer.

In science subjects there are typically 8-12 questions and the students will try to finish as many as possible. But complete answer of about 3 questions would probably give you an "alpha" grade as each question carries a full score of 25 and this score will be squared (3x625=1875, vs 10 questions of 10 scores each scoring 10x100=1000). Therefore, the "top first" would score as many as 5000 in a paper (for a rare "alpha plus" score) while to get alpha you only need to score 2000.

In humanity subject, the paper quite often is a single essay on a very concisely phrased question/issue. To illustrate the paper and the how the scores are determined we have this legend

• Question: "What is risk?" (I do not know what the subject is, probably philosophy or literature, or economic!. It is just an un-verifiable legend anyway)
• A student went in, answered with three words, left the examination hall and got an alpha
• His full essay for the 3 hour exam? "This is risk."

---

In HK it is unlikely that this will happen, as we know. There is no trust/mutual-respect in our education system for this. The student would not dare the risk and the professor will assume the student is unruly. But I think Mr Lam Kay would score an alpha in this

• "What is causality?"
• 看看唐英年怎麼說吧:"當彭定康拍拍籮柚走左去之後，香港人就衰足七年"；林忌加一句"當董建華拍拍籮柚走左去之後，香港人就好足三年!"
• a) Henry Tang, "When Chris Patten left HK, he left HK to suffer for 7 years" b) Lam Kay's corollary, "When Tong Chee Hwa left his position, he left HK to prosper for 3 years" -- This is causality!

To spray salt on his wounded feet, I would also like to add these

• When Tung's father passed away and left OOIL (Oriental Overseas), it went bankrupt
• When Tung left OOIL, OOIL stock price shot to the sky between the period of 1997-2004

This "Folk-Guy" had some track record but nobody I knew agreed with me when I talked about that 10 years ago. sigh...

No winter in HK in half a century?

The HK Observatory must have missed the controversy it stirred last year. As it is making noise again. The new story? -- No winter in HK in half a century.

Yeah, right, global warming, skyscraper trapping heat and that. I just do not believe these linear projections. People also said, China's GDP/cap grows at 10% p.a., at this rate it will surpass that of US in 20 year ( (50000/7000) at 10% p.a.-- PPP) or 33 years (log(50000/2000)/log(1.1) at nominal).

A few issues to consider

• There's got to be some negative feedback (i.e. self correcting) factor in any system, especially so as HK is not a close system by itself. It has only 1050km² of land where the so-called "skyscraper trapping effect" is only applicable to some 20% of the area.
• As for the global trend in "warming", let's also remember that it is far from conclusive (see the other side of the argument). Furthermore, it may not be just global. It may be pan-solar-system. e.g., The temperature in Mars has risen by a comparable amount during the same period.
• I also do not understand why the skyscraper can trap the heat but not the coolness as Mr Lam claimed

Maybe Mr Lam is trying to be funny. He said, "We would really start losing the very distinct seasonal march throughout the year".

Anyway, I would believe Deng Xiaoping if Deng and Lam contradicts. Deng told us HK will not change for half a century. @_@