Showing posts with label hong kong. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hong kong. Show all posts

Saturday, October 16, 2010

香港的集體失焦: 刻舟求劍 (之二) 發水樓陰招 房價繼續漲

Update: See also: C觀點 - 施永青 限制「發水」沒對症下藥

要簡化一個複雜的問題,需要找出一些容易量度的變量。

在香港房價的問題上,無論怎麼分析,供求還是最基本(fundamental)的變量。就是要看,整個市場裡一共有多少錢在追逐多少房子

政府最新公佈的政策,基本上還是與地產商狼狽為奸。而所謂的“發水樓”措施,只會使得樓價=漲得越快。因為
  1. 新土地供應根本沒有增加。甚至長期空置的啟德機場還是空置,只拿出2000個單位來做樓換樓,而且還是最快2017年後才能完成的事。這等於是向地產商和炒家保證,其餘的地將繼續空置!土地供應不會增加!
  2. 置屋計劃(資助置業也是,要2014年開始供應也就算,一共也就5000個單位,每年可能1000個(還不一定)。這些土地也不一定是增加供應,因為可能是從原來要拍賣的地轉換而來,沒人知道。
  3. 置屋計劃,或任何政府資助/貸款的購房方案,都是增加投入市場的現金,令到市面有更多的金錢去追逐同樣數量的房子。總的結果,就是進一步推高樓價。
  4. 要打擊欺騙消費者的發水建築面積,莫過於規定必須公佈實用面積。即使不能立即立法,也可由於消委會制定規則,而且因為目前的實用面積定義包括外牆,外牆數字需要列出。。可是政府根本無有確定的時間表,也沒有要求二手樓必須提供類似的數字作為比較,使得買樓花的消費者根本不知道買的房子其實有多大。市場資訊的不對稱,使得買家永遠處於劣勢。
  5. 不過,最奸狡的一招,莫過於發水樓的限制。所謂的限制窗台大小和把大堂面積計入樓積比率,結果是總的可使用面積的供應減少了。也就是同樣數量的金錢,去追逐更少的面積。根本就是暗推樓價的招數(分析見下)。假如政府真的有誠意,應該是不要去限制如何建房子,而是去要求這些地方不能作為樓面去賣。
要解決樓市泡沫的方法只須兩招
  1. 增加供應,並明確列出今後幾年的土地供應量。可以有一定(如10%)的調整空間,也可以逐步增加以降低衝擊。
  2. 規定所有成交必須列出實用面積,地產經紀也必須透露二手樓的實用面積(包括不實用的外牆所佔面積),使其成為市場標準。建築面積可以並列以資比較,不過應該把不同種類的建築面積(比如窗台、會所、樓梯、牆壁、其他公用空間等)列出。只要不許把不該算的地方算入“面積”定義,所謂發水樓的微觀管理(micromanagement)根本莫須有。
明明是在壓縮市民居住的空間,居然有臉說要提供優質生活 。這一刻,真懷念老懵懂。他做的唯一一件好事就是八萬五,卻因此得罪了香港的既得利益者。

大家放心炒樓吧,曾蔭權和李+X罩住你。 不過假如世界經濟戳破泡沫,則請別像1998-2003年間般抱怨。

---
附:發水樓假限制陰招分析。

這是昨天政府官員林鄭出示的發水樓實用與建築面積比較


現在“實用”面積還是785平方呎(應該已包括了室內的間隔牆),建築呎價賣8000元,該單位賣824萬。平均“實用”呎價高達10497元。若不算外牆,則是8240000/(785-132=653)=12618元,若出去窗台工作平台等,則“真正”實用呎價=8240000/(653-38=615)=13398元。
比較合理的算法,可以把 22+16+34=72平方呎三台的一半36平方呎算,估計實用呎價=824000/651=12657元


規管後的建築面積呢,可能不再是1030平方呎了,而是900或950(除外牆之外發水面積為233平方呎,估計減去100平方呎)。

仔細一點所,按文匯報報導
  • 為免「發水」項目令單位越見「縮水」,發展局決定收緊現行政策,包括降低停車場、露台、工作平台和會所的寬免比率,以及收緊窗台的可建面積,令窗台的「發 水」上限由以往平均15%降至10%;非結構預製外牆的寬免從300毫米減至150毫米、延伸窗台的深度從目前建築規格的500毫米減至100毫米。除了 強制性設施可獲得樓面寬免,當局決定撤銷郵件室、小型後勤服務室、尊貴式大堂的寬免。
窗台見1/3就是從34變成22。工作台則減80%就是剩下3平方呎!外牆及公共分攤相應減少,假設減30%好了。假設如下


絕對實用 露台 工作台 外牆 “實用面積” 窗台 公共 “建築面積”


















目前                   615            22            16          132                   785            34          211               1,030








76%









將來                   615            15              3            92                   725            23          148                   896








81%


由於追逐房子的金錢總額基本沒變(甚至由於置業計劃而增加了),買家間競爭(這就是這些年樓價一直漲的原因)的結果,你還是用824萬買這個單位(應該不會低於800萬,吧?),實用面積(按政府定義現在降到732平方呎,如工作台台等“半實用”地方不見了。分母基本不變,分子小了,平均“可用呎價”其實不降反升。

實用率是高了,81%。不過這是因為政府的所謂實用面積定義裡還有外牆所佔面積在內,實際遠低於此。呎價如何呢?假設房子賣800萬(讀者可以自己再做其他假設)


絕對實用 估計實用 “實用面積” “建築面積”
        8,240,000



平方呎                        615                        651                        785                     1,030
 呎價/元                   13,398                  12,657                  10,497                     8,000
        8,150,000



平方呎                        615                        635                        725                        896
 呎價/元                   13,252                  12,828                  11,235                     9,098

可見建築面積呎價肯定飆升,是不是有10%不得而知,不過這應該距離不遠。而“估計實用”面積呎價還是大同小異,幾乎沒變。 假如樓價是815萬的話,則‘估計實用’呎價已比之前增加,為12828元。這裡還有額外增加建築成本等因素

政府要是真的有誠意,就應該在禁止發水建築設計的同時,增加同樣比例的土地(樓面)供應,或在賣地時,增加樓積比率,增加總樓面供應量。否則,這一招其實就是在暗托樓價。

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Time machine found in HK

What a trading floor!

I thought this is from the 1970s, but the date was September 2, 2010!!!

Tell me where you can find those antique machines. No wonder HK lags Singapore by so much.

I can understand why the traders want long lunch breaks, but I cannot understand what the trader can do which computers cannot,  with better accuracy and efficiency.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

緣木求魚:再論回扣旅遊

續前文 (香港的集體失焦:背道而馳 與 刻舟求劍 (之一)

今天香港無線電視台新聞透視提供了很好的實驗數據,證明了強迫購物跟團費的零關聯。

該節目跟踪一個團,每人付了1800-2000不等的人民幣,結果還是一樣被強迫購物。還有一個旅客額外交了2500元的“年輕人低購物附加費”,另一個付了三百元的“非上海居民低消費力附加費”。結果來到香港還不是一視同仁,一個宰法。

人的本性是貪得無厭的。把問題推在 “零團費”上,使得遊客以為團費跟服務有關聯,其實等同旅遊黑店的同謀。結果是遊客付了高額團費,受到的還是零團費的服務,還是被迫在指定的店花一整天購物。

因為,強迫購物的問題,不是團費多少,而是商戶與旅行社還有導遊的回扣問題。 必須取締,或至少限制回扣百分比的上限,才能杜絕強迫購物的問題。政府立法慢,TIC旅遊業協會樹準則,給標籤總可以吧?

標籤不該跟團費有關。簡單一點,所有團都有標籤,就是(1)零回扣,(2)低回扣(<5%),(3)高回扣(>5%)。然後看那第三類的怎麼做生意。然後,必須發給每個旅客一份協會說明,列出什麼是允許的,什麼是不允許的,被強迫購物該打那個電話,還有旅客錄音錄像的權利。

拜託各媒體,以後不要再說什麼“零團費”,“低團費”了。這樣只會誤導遊客消費者,你們也不知不覺中變成了黑店的同謀。 要叫,就叫“強迫購物團”,或“購物回扣團”

那10%市佔率辦“ 優質旅遊”的旅行社,也請你們改一改稱呼。叫“零回扣團”,這樣你們才能在市場銷售上DIFFERENTIATE。必須要有一個可以客觀描述不是模棱兩可的指標,才可以把你們從那些害群之馬區別開來。否則,你收4000元一位,人家收3800元照樣強迫購物!

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Who killed Mr. Masa Tse (update!)

The unbelievable incompetency of the Filipino police and government has, naturally, led to many conspiracy theories. I have been in the view that the negotiation (or non-negotiation) of the authority is more to blame than the police/SWAT team -- because according to the survivors (e.g. Mr Chan -- who was smart enough to stock his backpack with bottled water and shield his head with the backpack and his both hands), Mendoza fired at them shortly after Mr. Masa Tse was shot. i.e. that would make the timing well before the hammering fiasco. (yes, they were incompetent, the lost an hour which could have saved a few of the wounded. but it was the failed negotiation that triggered the shooting)

However, evidence has surfaced (shown in TVB tonight as well) that there was a suspicious bullet hole in the front of the bus, quite likely from the outside, exactly at the time when Mr Tse fell. (which was before the bus moved and got shot at the tires)


from this cnn video (titled "manila hostage crisis mishandled?), one of the victim was shot from his left ear.



I do not know who this victim (shot at his left ear) is. But it won't be difficult to find out.
  1. Mr. Tse was facing the door at the time
  2. If Mendoza shot him, he would be shot from behind
  3. If the SWAT team shot him, there would be a bullet hole on his left face, quite likely his left ear but can be other area on the left side of his face or neck. And the bullet track would be going in from lower left to upper right.
Now his body is in HK. An autopsy will tell us whether 2 or 3 is the case. An it would be easy to find out who shot him. Follow the red line on the figure, the shooter is not too far from the bus in the front.

If Mr. Tse was shot by the SWAT team. There may indeed be a conspiracy -- and an explanation to why they went in length to smash the harmless window panes. And if a SWAT member was the first to shoot a hostage -- what triggered Mendoza's outrage may not be his brother being handcuffed, but maybe he felt that he would be blamed for killing Mr Tse anyway -- and will be shot at the spot.

Survivor Chen was unable to see Tse at from his seat. So Chen may not know what happened in the front. But the driver was in a position where he could witness it. Has he seen it? Does he have a side (or made to choose side) in this conspiracy?

Update: (ATV & TVB News) The Philippines authorities released the autopsy report, showing Tse shot by a bullet on the neck, with ATV's graphic illustration initially showed the bullet from right in, left out -- seems to refute the conspiracy theory (and perhaps consistent with the speculation that the same bullet went through and hit the front window pane. However, it was not clear if the the 'direction' of the bullet was unambiguously concluded. This is reinforced TVB news illustration which only mentioned that the bullet went through Tse's neck. i.e. omitting the direction of the bullet, while stating/drawing with no ambiguity the directions of the bullets for other victims.

Update 2: According to Ming Pao (Aug 28, quoting GMA TV in Philippines), Tse was shot form left side, supporting the conspiracy theory.
  • 8名死者中,機智致電回港通報的領隊謝廷駿是頭部中槍死亡,子彈由左至右射入其頸部對上位置
update 3: Singtao (AUG 29) spelled out the issue as well
  • 菲律賓驗屍報告顯示,謝廷駿是左臉頰中槍,惟港方卻發現他是頸項中槍。據調查透露,謝是被槍手射殺,當時謝站在車頭面向車門(左臉頰向車頭玻璃方向,所站處地方狹窄),其身體右邊則暴露在槍手,推測槍手從謝的右邊開出致命一槍,但卻是左臉中槍,存在疑點。

    Tuesday, August 24, 2010

    President Benigno Aquino III, "Even in Russia..." ???

    "....But, as you know, even in Russia—they have resources and sophistication—when they had that theater hostage taking situation, the casualties were even more severe.” President Benigno Aquino III said in an interview, seemingly smiling with certain degree of satisfaction for his team's achievement. Or maybe I am wrong, his face always looks like that -- I should apologize if I am mistaken, but that is what my mother said, she had been silent until she saw the smiley from him.

    So i looked up what happened in Russia, in Beslan, and in Dubrovka Theater Moscow.

    Beslan, from wiki
    • hostage = 1200 hostages
    • terrorists = 32
    • total death of hostages =334 (if include special force and "others" 354) , total injured hostages = 783 (including special force)
    • death <30% of total hostages
     Dubrovka Theater Moscow, from wiki
    • hostage = 850-900 hostages
    • terrorists = 33(+)
    • total death of hostages =129-204, total injured hostages = 783 (including special force)
    • death <25% total hostages
    Manila
    • death = 8/15 = 54%
    • hostage taker 1
    "the casualties were more severe?" Are you serious Mr. the Third? you mean 25%-30% is more severe than 50+%?

    The specific demand of the hostage taker is not entirely clear yet. it is reported he wanted his job back and his name cleared. Among the requests whick were bluntly denied include just an meeting with the media (MEDIA NOW in his note on window) and perhaps have an open hearing to his case, which could be granted to anyone in principle. The answer from the Philippines government could simply be "yes, we would open the case and let the media to judge, but you would also need to face the consequence of what you did today" which is reasonable enough.

    This is fundamentally different from what the terrorists wanted in Russia's cases. So the cases are really not comparable, but I would give you the comparison just for your smiley face sake.

    Anyway, I, for one, will never visit this country again, for business or leisure, until this government can demonstrate that it is willing to respect lives of visitors, or any person in general. If I have to, I would rather go to Russia instead, or Israel / Palestine. Yes, I know these are terrible places with high risks. But I also know if anything happens there, my survival rate will be higher, significantly higher, at least higher than the miserable 46% you provide. As a matter of fact, I would rather play Russian rollette than being taken hostage in your country. Playing Russian roulette my survival rate will be exactly 50%. BTW, I would like to play that game with you, my friend.

    And more importantly, they care more about that than you do. And I won't be "smiled" at even if I am expended in the rescue action. So, thank you for reminding me of that comparison, President Aquino III, for I wouldn't have known the difference in survival rate if not for you. I might have to face a tough choice of picking between Russia and Philippines in future, who knows? But at least I have done my homework and I would have no regret -- because this is a totally rational choice, backed up by numbers.


    ===

    Aquino explains his stand on Monday's hostage crisis

    By GENALYN KABILING
    August 24, 2010, 10:51am
    Where was President Benigno Aquino III during the 12-hour hostage crisis in Manila last Monday?

    The President explained that he was monitoring the hostage drama from the Palace but left the matter to concerned police authorities for them to effectively handle.

    Appearing in a press conference aired early Tuesday in Malacañang after the hostage drama ended with the death of the hostage-taker and eight hostages, the President also claimed that it would not do good if he interfered with the work of the ground commander to secure the captives.

    Aquino was nowhere in sight as the hostage drama involving a former policeman and a busload of Hong Kong tourists unfolded Monday.

    He only appeared in public three hours after the crisis was over, apologizing to the Hong Kong government for the casualties and expressing condolences to the families of the victims. Afterwards, he went to the Quirino Grandstand, the scene of the incident, early Tuesday morning and inspected the bus hijacked by former police officer Rolando Mendoza.

    “Nalaman ko po itong insidenteng ito kaninang umaga pa po actually, at mula nung umaga, tayo ay kumakausap na sa ilan sa mga kinauukulang awtoridad. Hindi ko naman po siguro kakailanganin pang i-publicize ‘yong mga ginagawa po natin. (I learned about the incident early Monday morning. Since then, we were already talking to some concerned authorities. I don’t have to publicize my every move),” he said.

    “Consciously, from the morning since we were informed of this incident, we were asking to be kept apprised of the developments, but consciously, it had to lay the delegated authority to the rightful persons who are tasked to carry out the functions and secure the situation,” he added, in his apparent first security crisis since assuming the presidency last June.

    Aquino, in explaining his low-profile role in the hostage drama, also said the ground commander should be given confidence since “he is the person who is there on the sight who will have to make these tough decisions if necessary."

    “It does not help him to have somebody looking over his shoulder and micro-managing everything that he has to do,” he said.

    The President added that he was busy prohibiting some people from derailing the resolution of the hostage crisis.

    “Isa sa mga pinaka-mahirap na parte ‘nung araw natin ay ‘yong mga pag-aawat nitong mga nag-mi-miron (One of the difficult parts of my day was the stopping of those nosy observers),” he said.

    Citing an example, the President said he asked Interior and Local Government Secretary Jesse Robredo to restrain an official from the National Police Commission from further meddling in the hostage incident. Without identifying the person, he said this police official immediately rejected the demands of the hostage-taker despite ongoing efforts to secure the safe release of the hostages.

    “Kumbaga sinira agad ang (As if he ruined) avenues for negotiation so I [had] to task Jesse Robredo to call up this particular NAPOLCOM official to tell him to keep quiet because he was, for whatever reason, greatly complicating the tense situation already,” he said.

    The President, meantime, ordered concerned government agencies to investigate the hostage crisis at the Quirino Grandstand, saying the problem should have been handled more efficiently.

    He said his administration would also find ways to improve the capability of security forces in dealing with hostage situations.

    “This resulted in a tragedy. Obviously, we can improve and we should be improving. We are also cognizant of the circumstances, training, budgets for instances for incidents such as this,” he said.

    He said the provision of new and better equipment and more training of security forces would ensure the safety of the public during crisis situations. He said the method employed by the armed members of Special Weapons and Tactics (SWAT) team for a possible assault on the bus was unsuccessful. “Obviously we will need better equipment and more training to be able to successfully breach such scenario,” he said.

    Asked if he thought there were lapses in the way the crisis was handled, he said: “How can I be satisfied if there are people who died? But, as you know, even in Russia—they have resources and sophistication—when they had that theater hostage taking situation, the casualties were even more severe.”

    On questions why the government waited for so long to employ force to end the hostage drama, he said they cannot use the “final option as the first option” due to concerns it might put the hostages at unnecessary risks.

    He said they initially hoped there would be amicable and peaceful solution to the hostage crisis given the hostage-taker’s release of some hostages early Monday. Unfortunately, he said the situation deteriorated rapidly when the hostage-taker started shooting at negotiators, prompting authorities to storm the bus and rescue the hostages.

    Sunday, August 8, 2010

    香港的集體失焦:背道而馳 與 刻舟求劍 (之一)

    一)背道而馳

    惡珍事件

    主流意見如闾丘露薇的"恶阿珍怎麽来"無非是說

    • 零团费以及负团费是引发问题的根源
    • 还是依靠行业管理,提升经营模式,而不是停留在这种低层次的销售阶段
    更有接受惡珍那似是而非的辯解("一个巴掌拍不响,阿珍之所以变凶妇,用她的话来说,那些游客不但购物不多,还对她语言尖锐,最终使她失控"),或是惡珍老闆(竊以為其責任肯定比惡珍大)的“你應該知道沒有免費午餐”論,好像貪小便宜的遊客們才是問題的根源。

    結論自然就是好像大家不自律這問題就解決不了似的。

    可是,為什麼會有零團費?這根本原因在哪裡?一直都沒有人點出真正的原因。因此一切的討論都在緣木求魚。得出的結論也自然都是背道而馳了。

    零團費的根源,是不合比例的回扣率。這些惡珍們的回扣率為什麼到目前都沒有媒體去調查報導呢?有以前當過導遊的人告訴我,不少店給的回扣往往高於銷售額的50%!為什麼工程入標拿回扣就是貪污,遊客購物拿回扣就不是呢?同樣是因為拿了回扣所以才使手段讓遊客(工程招標者)買了貴價貨啊。世上大部分公司的採購員拿了回扣都要坐牢的,在香港也如此,廉政公署之責任也。

    解決惡珍問題,沒錯是要取締零團費或超低團費,也就是回扣補貼團費的問題。而要解決零團費問題,唯一的方法就是處理“不合理”回扣的問題。

    建議方法
    1)立法禁止導遊收取回扣,或限制回扣上限(比如5%),甚至可以考慮由遊客按購買額來付購物導遊小費。
    2)若不完全取締回扣,必須(在報團時)向遊客公開購物回扣率
    3)旅遊發展局可以像發“優質服務章”一樣,發“不付回扣章”給正當經營的商戶。

    只有這樣,才能確保導遊的利益不是站在顧客的對立面。以後旅行社的宣傳標榜的將會是“不收商戶回扣”或“回扣率 < 5%”。只有這樣,才能保得香港旅遊業的聲譽。只有這樣,導遊才能回歸為一項正當職業。

    Saturday, July 31, 2010

    香江多才子

    堂堂英語文學士大概是看了盜版UA93的二次翻譯版(英譯中譯英)字幕學的吧。立此存照。


    不要跟我說是typo,水果系列的日常娛樂就是以揶揄別人家的typo為樂的。

    "rule"是"主宰","roll"是"啟動","開始行動". 砸骰子是“Roll a dice”。
    roll 的是我們, 某些(別的)人物"rules".
    Let's Roll "! "The Internet (or iPad, or Lady Gaga) rules"!

    英國人做學問以嚴謹見稱,上了這些年學也該耳濡目染,不懂的話以後賣文時上wiki 查一查不行嗎?

    p.s. 其他的非英語的常識錯誤就不說了,比如馮京當馬涼的Kemal 變 Kamel。硬生生把土耳其的國父變成好像駱駝一樣。

    Sunday, November 30, 2008

    Price elasticity in HK Taxi industry

    The issue of HK taxi pricing is one of the most interesting cases in microeconomic problems. It is one of those that would deserve a Cheung Ng-sheung style analysis like he did for the theatre pricing.

    The HK government, more than 2 years after my proposal of tiering pricing, finally implemented the price rationalization. However, the timing is very bad, amidst the economic recession. Bureaucracy has made poorly timed policy inevitably in many goverments, HK is of no exception.

    The new pricing involves a 7% rise in short distance (i.e.about 10km), which represents probably 65-70% of the incomes for taxi drivers. So the net effect is a 5% hike in average price.

    Early reports claimed that total revenue decreased by about 20%, which I think is exxagerated (and partial data plus overshoot/overreact by passengers), more likely though it would be a 10% decrease, if I can extrapolate from the very limited data points in my previous post -- which is bad enough for the taxi drivers, epecially this incremental 10% are mostly net incomes as the fixed costs such as rent and time are constant.

    In short, the pricing change, if implemented a year ago while the economic was robust, would have been welcomed. The new scheme, unsatisfactory as it is, is stil way more "rational" than the old one, although I would still prefer a more continuous change in price per km.


    Friday, March 7, 2008

    The cossack analogy for Hong Kong

    In WWII, the soldiers and weapons manufactured in Siberia have replenished the loss in tghe battlefield for Soviet Russia. This seeminly unlimited supply of new resources has shifted the balance and finally led to the defeat of Nazi Germany.

    Applying this in 'democratic politics', the young generation is the "cossack" for the candidate who can appeal to the young generation. Every 4 years, some 3% of the populations cross the age of 21 and become eligible to vote. Given the voter base is only around 70-75% of the total population (excluding the under-age), about 4% of the voters are first time voters. Moreover, the newly eligibles are more likely to vote because it is a new right for them. (All these are my rough estimates. I would appreciate if someone knows the actual stats, I am sure such research has been done somewhere).

    I have discussed in another post that this has been fuelling the success of DPP in Taiwan, though the trend might have been reversed recently.

    In Hong Kong, this is something which has been long ignored as well, especially by the "pan-Dem" and the Nextmedia clan of "old pigeon". It has been more than 10 years since the old colonial masters have left, and more than 20 years since the British government had announced HK residents belong to the second class colonial type. What amused me is that the Nextmedia propaganda machine continue to use the colonial nostalgia reminder to tell us how bad the current government is, and how good the old colonial masters were. It seems that these writers, including the infamous writing hand (写手 aka "才子") and the various editors of Next and AD, are in the belief that such comparison could prove their points that the current bureaucrats are inferior and help them win supporters for pan-Dem. But the more likely case, in my view, is that they are really talking about what they believe and how they feel. What they do not know, or fail to realize, is that the younger generation do not share any of such experience or emotion with them (i.e. even if their ideals are mostly agreeable). Not only are they not the beneficaries of the old colonial masters, they do not have the vaguest idea what they are (well, except for a few). The Nextmedia way is just going to turn people away even if some (or many) of the ideals they preach are agreeable to this generation.

    What does this new generation believe? I do not know. What I know is what would not work on them. e.g,
    • The anti-mainland card does not work. They grow up in an environment where the HK economy is suported by the growth in China. Many of them are new immigrants from the mainland
    • To another extreme, the new voters were too young to remember what happened 19 years ago. The radical approaches by many of the AD preachers do not resonate with them
    • They do not know what the hell you are talking about when you tell them what the Brits would have done. (Frankly, in my opinion, many AD articles committed the crime of lying or exaggeration when they made the pre-colonial comparision)
    As a result, the defeat of pan-Dem is inevitable, if they are still toeing this party line (i.e. the Martin Lee/Jimmy Lai) line. Because, simply, they are turning away the army of cossacks to their opponents.

    Wednesday, February 6, 2008

    拯救替死鬼,剃庸官眼眉

    Please donate to articles23.net

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    Our goal is not just to give "that guy" 替死鬼 a fair chance to defend. Our further goal is to "shave the eyebrows" of the incompetent bureaucrats, i.e., the police and that stupid judge. Only by defeating the "reactionaries", only by bringing them to acknowledge what they have done wrongly, could HK be restored with the glitters of the past.

    拯救替死鬼,剃庸官眼眉。我們憤怒了!

    p.s. To the managers in Apple Daily and Jimmy Lai, to be fair you should also donate your share, by taking these ads at 'cost' or a deep discount, or put it to the front page while charging the lowest inner page price.

    Saturday, February 2, 2008

    Les Misérables - 2008 Hong Kong

    This is a sad day for the Fragrant Harbour, and the darkest day.

    This city has degenerated into one that serves the rich and famous. This is no longer the free city that we loved and enjoyed. There is no rule of law any more. The police went nut. The judges became pig. Hong Kong is dead, dead, dead! Whatever kind of education system, what kind of legal mason/society, whatever kind of pseudo-moral pressure, produced these types of legal pigs, we thuck you very much!

    Let's fight back. Let set up an organisation, a fund, to support the Jean Valjean's who may have committed minor crimes, but were prosecuted unfairly. This is not about moral or ethic, this about naked justice.

    8 weeks with no bail. This is JUST...NOT....RIGHT!

    Without justice, without rationality, one day the rule of tyrant will fall upon us.



    Related:
    1) 有人敢企出來報警嗎?
    2) article23.net
    3) I have no far refrained from expressing my personal view on the "scandal" itself. Perhaps Monk Yankong has now said what I wanted to say about this incidence.

    Tuesday, July 31, 2007

    再談皇后碼頭



    其實,我也會支持保衛皇后碼頭。不過,是上圖的那個皇后碼頭。當年拆掉那古典建筑的港督,才是造成今天我們普羅大眾對皇后碼頭漠不關心甚至鄙視的源頭。

    硬要說建筑美感不重要,回憶才要緊的保皇黨,就如要香港小姐選內在美,比學歷一樣,正硬膠也。回憶在心中就夠了,拍一張照片,存在博物館、甚至網站,不就成就了你們的集體回憶了嗎?
    要香港小姐選學歷?我們每年都有10A、6A的狀元,雖然試卷水平參差,總算也客觀公正,難道那幫選美評判的學歷更高,“內在美”無人可及,具備窺視人家內在的超能力?

    明明知道皇后碼頭沒有任何美感好言,卻搬出似是而非的理由硬辯,不可能得到民心。 硬要把具體的事物(建筑)抽象化("歷史價值"),就如去了皮的毛,“毛之焉附”?

    其實保皇黨真正想要的,是一個宣傳工具。他們要讓目前對皇后碼頭沒有印象的人、或者現在還沒出生的人,也有他們的“集體記憶”而已。所以,才覺得博物館和照片圖書不夠說服力。不過,這不是把自己的意愿強加在別人身上嗎?這不正正就違反了人家自由選擇的權利嗎?

    今天,蘋果日報的尹思哲說的最好。 我的看法大致相同:
    1. 皇后碼頭該拆
    2. 而且要越早拆越好
    3. 同學們的精神可敬,希望以后繼續
    4. 下回挑一個真正能引起我們共鳴的題目,比如臭名昭章的“強迫金”

    Saturday, July 28, 2007

    What Queen's Pier? 反對重置皇后碼頭

    想來想去,實在想不出皇后碼頭有甚麼價值。四個平庸的毛筆字,同樣平庸的鐵欄、石柱,為甚麼要浪費我們納稅人的血汗錢來重置?港人對這件事已經越來越不理性,假如皇后碼頭要重置,鵝頸橋公廁是不是也要重置?

    即使從歷史的角度來看,有多少人去過皇后碼頭多少次,都去那里干了甚麼事情?就本人了來說,以前游船上落點都是在天星的左邊,到卜公碼頭之間。直到回歸后才在皇后碼頭登了一兩次船。在盲目跟從媒體和所謂保育人士的宣傳之前,是否先想想,自己到底對這個地方有甚麼回憶?

    我支持拆卸皇后碼頭,反對浪費納稅人的金錢去重置。

    政府應該對人民有信心,就來一次民意調查或公眾投票,看看這是多少人的集體回憶。

    要重置可以,政府也應該配合。不過應該由這些希望保留的人出錢買地和重置。畢竟,這是你們的集體回憶。

    要進行民意調查也不難,先在此做一個網上投票。


    (there was something wrong with the poll java script. it is now redone, please vote again)

    相關連接:皇后碼頭的困局

    light reading: Engrish menu in Japan

    We have heard enough about bad/mechanical translation of Chinese menu into Engrish, and that Beijing has launched campaigns to clean this "racist park" fun away from us, preparing for the Olympic.

    This will be something anyone with a sense of humour will surely miss. I wonder if those activists who are camping out of Queen's Pier in HK care to sit out for this piece of collective memory / 集体回忆 for us. Perhaps not, they only care about the colonial nostalgia and where their old colonial masters landed.

    But no worry, our neighbour, the Japanese, now come to the rescue



    FYI, "asspara" is not a para-para dance with the bottom. it is a vegetable that we all know, translated into Japanese Katagana with some truncation in phonetics and translated back to Engrish again losing some more fidelity. (like compressing a picture file into jpeg and then to gif and back to jpg again -- if that makes it easier to understand) As for "Shrimp and cock soboro hammering out pasta curry cream", I will leave your imagination to figure out what it is. All I can say is that I know how to distinguish male lobsters from female ones, but I have never been able to identify the same part of the body for shrimps.

    Friday, July 27, 2007

    Miss HK Will Hung 香江小姐孔慶翔

    香江小姐選美,選出一個女版孔慶翔

    黑幕內定各有其論,不過最一針見血的莫過于把前任落選港姐的評語斷章取義來讀,“ 好多網友淨係睇樣同身材,我審美係會睇埋邊,最初睇佢個個人履歷,知道佢加拿大返,識英文已經對佢有好感,睇佢寫文字仲知佢係有內涵

    噢,原來這一次選的是絕對內在美。去年選的可能也是內在美。1988年選的絕對是外在。前年呢?明年呢?反正每年有新的評判,自然選的標準不一樣。務必讓你們這些蟻民無可適從。內定又如何,又不是你們在選,各位看官,你們只有看的份兒。“吹咩!”

    我們特區還有一個八百人的評判團,成員與各次選美多少有重疊之處。都是名流仕紳,達官貴人,社會精英是也,且大都身懷絕技,掌握某些能人所不能的特異“功能”。選出來的特區代表如出一(車撤),都是傾城之貨色

    有好事者,謂來年香港選美必重現1988之輝,以應本年成為郭隗千里馬頭骨蓋之典,戲言矣!由來唯客觀不變難以爭辯之基準能成長久之計,比如一號一票之SMS公投。只有公平、公開的規則標準,才能保證最有實力競爭者的勝利,也因而能鼓勵最有實力的競爭者來參賽。胡主席也理解只有社會公平才能持續發展。

    不能把800個傀儡拉下馬,未來我們這些蟻民也免不了再遭建華之殃,者我們無能為力。可是,讓大家一起決定甚麼是美總可以吧?

    連內地都可以一號一票選出超女快男,而這邊廂欣賞的美卻被牽著鼻子內外亂晃,難道這就是一國兩制?

    泛民諸公,該是給三色臺施加壓力的時候了。

    Wednesday, July 25, 2007

    的士價格管制方法"板凳刻"

    年多前本博已曾建議香港的的士價格計算方法需要改變了。

    今天知日部屋提出了京都的板凳刻(benchmarking),其實并不新鮮,比如雅加達(Jakarta),便有銀鳥、藍鳥(此二鳥同屬PUKASA公司)等'的',價格各不一樣。北京的士起步價和每公里價也有多種選擇(跟公司無關)。吉隆坡(KL)也有Premier Taxi。有選擇有競爭當然好。可是這些改變沒有根治香港的士價格的根本問題。

    香港的的士定價的問題出于其忽略了的士接客過程所需的固定成本,而形成了目前的不合理性。也就是說,的士每接一客,中間所費的時間空轉及其相關油費租金成本沒有反映在計價系統內。難怪司機會拒載短程客。

    大家可知道,當你打的送朋友回家的話,假如要在朋友家門寒暄幾句的話(超過一分鐘),重新叫一輛的士比讓同一的士等待較省錢?(假如附近不難找的士的話)因為的士的起步價($15/2km)比起每公里價($7/km)相差無幾。(除非你家離朋友家的距離是在2公里內)

    因此,價格改革的關鍵在于使這固定成本能反映到價格系統里。例如以下方案,就同時解決了長途的士折扣和短途拒載的問題。



    其實上表的計價方法非常簡單,只是把每公里價按里程往下調。每增加一公里則新增公里價格減低一毫,直到略比邊際成本高一點為止。更重要的是,根據價格彈性的計算,的士司機的總收入其實增加了。詳細解釋見年前拙文,恕不贅述。

    以前電腦技術昂貴,的士計價表只能用簡單的計價方法。現在,要做到上述的計價表成本是幾乎相同的了。是電腦技術為我們解決了經濟問題,請運輸處諸公,不要墨守成規,也不要等甚麼顧問公司的研究。這些三流顧問公司,不是McKinsey,BCG,很難靠他們真正解決問題。

    Monday, July 23, 2007

    A google bomb experiment to promote corporate governance (on 鍾斌銓 鍾金榜 鍾燊榮)

    the result now is 3 2 2 1.

    so i addition to linking to this OP, i am copying the whole html down here as well. and try to boost the laggers a bit

    鍾斌銓 3 鍾金榜 2 鍾燊榮 2

    below is the OP:

    ---

    對付無良大股東 初見成效
    繼續連結榮豐!繼續推!Search 鍾斌銓 As of this moment, 3rd result.Search 鍾金榜 As of this moment, 5th result.Search 鍾燊榮 As of this moment, 6th result.Search 鍾斌盛 As of this moment, 1st result. 1st!要揭榮豐(063)無良大股東的所作所為!認識他們的人,告訴他們這個後果!