"Nightmare on Beijing Street"

Read UCLA Professor Tom Plate's insightful essay: Nightmare on Beijing Street. (via Michael Turton)

For those who are not familiar with Taiwan matters, Josepg Wu is the Chairman of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), appointed by Chen Shui-Bian. His preference and his enthusiasm in his job is well discussed in Plate's essay.

As usual, Michael has DPP spin defends his party line on the matter . His solution sounds like a legitimate alternative, but it assumes at least 10 "if's" and alliances with a dozen countries. The probability chain breaks down when any one of those "if" fails to turn up. I believe Michael himself have also written about the Taiwan Relation Act, showing that it is just an option (not an obligation) for US, not to mention that Japan's remilitarization (and another big "if" to interference on the Taiwan strait) is still far from the horizon.

Plate is insightful in the reality of an arms race

• "[Taiwan]try to match the mainland missile for missile -- that's just not feasible..."

I have actually been able to backed up his claim with solid numbers a year go. It is 21st century already. I can't imagine anyone other than Kim Jong-il is still obsessed with the idea of arms race. Plate is spot on in suggesting the "killer peace offensive".

P.S.
1) The same strategy is applicable to the mainland side as well
2) (Update) See also Chu Shulong interview. According to Chu "Beijing's priority is economic development, and will be happy as long as there is no crisis in Taiwan". That is pretty much what the world (except the Green in Taiwan) see it. Therefore, even Professor Plate seems to have asked the wrong question, as Taiwan is not under any real security threat at this moment, or at least in the next 30 years.

• 北京倒不關心台灣會亂，北京關心的是陳水扁會不會在兩岸關係議題上作文章，例如以改變台海現狀來轉移焦點，改變他的處境。 問及北京是否擔心呂秀蓮繼任總統時，楚樹龍說，最壞的情況都在李登輝和陳水扁執政時發生了，沒什麼好擔心了。
• 北京已理解到，統一是長期目標，急也急不來。胡錦濤上任後，把施政重點放在經濟建設，提出戰略經濟.....台灣問題仍然重要，但已不是第一重要，只要海峽相安無事，北京就會把關心重點擺到其他地方
  
  

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