Taiwan myth: why DPP stuck with Ah Bian

Paradoxes and contradictions, unbelievable, politics in Taiwan defy our intuition. Ideology, ethnic division often overshadow rationality. They are always myths to the outsiders. Even for people who are familiar with Taiwan, it is a non-trivial task to understand the going-on in Taiwan.

In an interview to Phoenix TV in HK a few weeks earlier, Shih Ming-Teh, the leader of the Red-shirt anti-corrption movement, was puzzled at why Chen Shiu-Bian chose to do what he did. Shih said, "If I were Bian, and suppose Bian is innocent, there is really no reason not to step down while the investigation in under progress. Because, even if Bian is cleared of the corruption charges, because he is still in power while the investigation is in progress, the opposition will find an excuse to accuse him of influencing the investigation. Instead, if he steps down temporarily, and emerged as innocent, he can really prove himself to be clean."

Meanwhile, Ma Ying-jeou is no better. Caught in a similar, although milder, case with Chen's Special Budget mis-use, Ma, a Harvard-trained lawyer, had found the "Anthony Leung wisdom" of thinking that aftermath donation will prove himself clean.

Another myth is about why DPP is willing to bundle itself with Ah Bian and sink with him, and why CSB chose to give up the center and appeal to the deep Green who are his supporterd no matter what. This has puzzled me for a while, until I read this New News article (初選制度，害民進黨變一言堂), the answer lies in DPP's primary nomination system.

• 一向大鳴大放的民進黨，成為一言堂，貪瀆的人沒事，批評貪瀆的人反而要被移送中評會，民進黨到底為什麼變成這樣？又怎麼連反都不敢反？有人說，「黨沒有分裂本錢、天王間的恐怖平衡，保住了扁的地位。最佳切割點應在年底北高選舉後。」立委黃偉哲表示：「病人在病重時，是否適合再做大手術？」
• 但其實，追根究柢起來，明年的「立委初選」就是他們自我閹割的癥結。一位同樣不願具名的南部立委不諱言地表示：「黨內各個有意參選的人，為了順利爭取提名出線，現在的﹃不語﹄是理所當然的。因為他必須考慮到後果，如果得罪了深綠選民，絕對在初選中討不到便宜。」民進黨的初選制度，是採三○％的黨內黨員投票；加上七○％的民調為基礎來決定候選人。
• 不過，如果是考慮初選，由深綠主控的黨員投票目前祇占三○％；具決定性的還是七○％的民調，雖然淺綠與中間選民已傾向不表態，又為什麼沒人考慮「造反」，以呼喚出這群不表態的選民衝高民調數字呢？
• 最主要的原因是，民調公司的尋找和題目的設計、訂定，都由黨中央決定，而黨中央一片保扁意識，與黨中央作對會有什麼下場？再者，民進黨前民調中心主任吳祥榮表示，今年的全代會確定明年立委初選的民調採用新的方式，也就是「排藍式民調」，亦即，會在題目中設計一題題目，問受訪者的政黨傾向，如為支持泛藍者，就不予採用，這是「為了確保初選勝出的候選人，確實受到民進黨支持者的認同。」他曾說：「以往沒有將支持藍軍的樣本數排掉，容易造成選出來的代表有代表性不足的問題。敵對方會刻意在民調上支持某人，但此人在真正代表民進黨出來參選時並不會當選，所以現階段的民調方式需做改變。」
• 但這樣的改變雖使得提名人更為「正綠軍」，卻也使得板塊不大的深綠選民，除了穩穩控制住黨員投票這一部分的結果外，也可以將力量延伸至另外的七○％，這也就是為什麼，陳水扁與保扁的黨中央都清楚，祇要控制深綠，就扼制了派系與有意參選公職的人的咽喉。這樣的邏輯，就可以理解為什麼民進黨這次會如此表現。

Basically, the reasoning goes, everyone who wants the party resources in his next election has to stick with the party line (i.e. CSB apologetic). Because the deep Green determines whether you would get the party nomination or not. Although the DPP nomination takes 30% party votes, and 70% public opinion poll, the public poll design is flawed, and rejects any sample from Blue-supporters, and defeats the purpose of being a poll for supports from voters outside the party. Hence, in reality only deep Green opinions were counted. Hence, CSB chose to speak Taiwanese dialect instead of Mandarin which has much wider audience. All senior DPP members chose to sink with Ah Bian even though that alienates themselves with the central voters and guarantee election defeat, because they would not even obtain party nomination otherwise.

N.B.
1) the reason for excluding Blue samples is to prevent Blue-supporters from influencing DPP into picking the 'wrong' candidate -- but the logic is flawed, since the true conspirator will not reveal that he supports the other party in such polls. A better approach is probably to employ a neutral party for the survey or do not reveal the purpose of the poll
2) KMT has adopted a similar nomination mechanism, with 30% in party and 70% public poll weights. But I do not know if the so called "public poll" deliberately exclude some people

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