Update: Taepodong-2's range, I was right and Vick was right.

I was right that TPD-2 did not go very far away from the launch site. GS's Vick agreed with more in depth analysis. An anonymous commentator confirmed by providing a set of typical rocket trajectory figures.

Now the main stream media followed, after pentagon confirmed with our analysis.

• The United States has told Japan that a long-range missile test-fired by North Korea this month exploded in mid-air just 1.5 kilometres from its launch site, much closer than previously estimated, news reports said today.
• Reuter: Sources quoted by Kyodo news agency said the missile exploded in mid-air within 1.5 km of the launch site, either in a northeastern region of North Korea or in its territorial waters on the edge of the Sea of Japan
• Japan Times: The United States has told Japan that the Taepodong-2 missile fired July 5 by North Korea exploded in midair within 1.5 km of the launchpad, not 400 to 600 km away as the Japanese government had initially estimated
• Yomiuri: The Japanese government initially reported that the missile fell into the Sea of Japan about 640 kilometers from the launch site. But the government will revise the report after officially announcing the analysis results in early August

The point here is not that I am better than Japanese intelligence. This is, after all, simple high school physics and maths, although more accurate estimate (1.5km range) requires some data on sophomore rocket science widely available publicly.

The question is, why did the information released by US (and indirectly, Japan) came more than 3 weeks late? I do have a hypothesis: it has to do with certain political agenda. 1) The matter needs to be misled before the UN resolution. 2) See another previous post for more hints. The outright lie and exaggeration (by more than 400 times) needed to stay for a while to save face and generate the impacts. It is very likely that someone (/country) probably delayed the release of the truth on purpose.

Categories:

• korea
• japan
• science
• pol