A picture in Beijing

This is a picture from my hotel room in Beijing. The two building in construction next to the tallest one in construction is the (in)famous CCTV Tower. A closer view of which can be seen below (taken at the SE corner of 3rd ring, just outside China World Hotel).



The sky is clear, because it has been raining the previous day.

The green area is the embassy zone in Chaoyang District. The only reason the trees were preserved is because the land belongs to foreign governments. All these friends who recognized China during the early years were rewarded financially (on paper) with the land appreciation. A particular example is the enormous lot comprises of two buildings right in front of the picture. It belongs to one of the former socialist brother countries. Later, after democratization. The two reached a deal for a friendly parting. The big brother was happy to get rid of the poorer pal, while the younger one wanted independence. So a part of the land was split and a new building was built. The enormous lot was split into two, the smaller building to the left of the picture becomes the embassy of the "new" country.

Quiz: (leave answer in the comment field please)
1) which two countries are these?
2) I pass by the German emabassy a few times, I am wondering what happened to the former Democratic Republic of Germany emabssy now. It should have been much larger than the size of the FRG embassy.

中国的绿色GDP

有关中国的绿色GDP，外界一直兴趣颇高。所以到最近统计局确定不会推行绿色GDP时，外界媒体的极度失望是很自然的了。如外界媒体所报道，地方的压力当然是部分的因素。可是，最主要的问题还是绿色GDP计算方法。

先要说明一点，为什么会产生绿色GDP的问题。中国官员（从省到市到县）的考核升迁，其中最主要的因素，就是GDP的增长。中国过去27年GDP的高速成长，跟考核方式脱不了关系。也正正因为如此，世界上只有中国的GDP里水分特多。县虚报一点，到了市级又来个四舍五入或干脆增加几个点，然后是省。到了中央，才可以勉强往下压一点，因为国家级干部考核的指标不完全相同了，不过通常也只是因为GDP增长率高得不可信了。别的国家地区，并没有这种考核制度，因此也没人去花这种心思虚报。谣传上一任的统计局长邱的下台，就与他收受贿赂，窜同虚报GDP有关。上海的陈良宇是其中一个行贿者。由是统计局虽名为局，却是一个部级的机构。因为其责任重大。绿色GDP的用途，就是要在官员考核的方程式里扣减绿色GDP的损失。

GDP的计算，是经济学家的范畴，笔者并不懂。据说绿色GDP本来要采取类似的框架。于是，就产生了每吨煤该扣减多少绿色GDP的难题。如何量化环境污染的难题先按下不表。GDP是每年计算的，单位是“元/年”，环境污染是长期的，单位是“元”。要把两个不同单位的量相比（或相减）在数学上是不可能的。当然我们还是可以研究一个学术上的绿色GDP，不过这参数难以简单地转变为考核指标，因此达不成原先构想的目标。此为中国绿色GDP推行不了的最主要原因。其次，据说统计局参考了北欧国家和各方学者的研究，计划中绿色GDP的统计算法把煤的污染都算到采矿者的头上。实际上，产煤者只该负责生产过程中所产生的污染，而用那种燃煤发电机，如何过滤燃烧产生的废气，该是用煤者的责任。目前国家的统计法和资料收集，没法考虑上述因素，因此也不能支持较真实的计算。这是目前国家统计局暂时停止了绿色GDP项目的最主要原因。

至于环境问题如何解决，且听下回分解。

Shanxi travel notes

I went to Shanxi for a few days recently (the bonus is to cover one more province in my footprint map). For the interest of time, instead of posting a travelogue, I will just list a few notes to share.

The Brick Kilns

1. People talked to me about the slave kiln voluntarily (before I asked). People I talked to confirmed that this has been widespread for some time and the local governments have at least been aware of such things to some degree.
Worse still, there was at least another case of burying a slave alive in Ruicheng County (芮城). I hope if there are journalists who come across this could go there to confirm if this is true. Because if it is indeed the case, that means there have been cover-ups in the investigation. The People (or Mr Wen) will have more ammunition to ask for a thorough review of the accountability of the bad officials

2. Contrary to the sentiment outside, in general, the local people do not feel that the punishment has been too lenient. I even heard of sympathetic comment about a deputy county mayor who was on the job only for 1 year.

3. On the road, one often see some 'wanderers'. the locals who drove with me told me that many of them were "released" from the kilns, and left to survive by themselves. "release" was actually a euphemism, the kiln owners actually drove them to the middle of nowhere and got rid of them. Since many of these ex-slaves are mentally retarded, they have no idea where they want to go. So they just wandered around.

4. Across the border in Sha'anxi province (陜西), I saw many klins by the freeway as well. I do not know if the situation is similar as it is in Shanxi (山西). But I think this worths a good story to cover for the journalists because

• if these kilns do not hire slave labor, it would be interesting to know how they managed to compete with the kilns 50-100 kms away across the provincial border
  
• if there are many kilns in Shaanxi, but there has been no abuse. That means something has really been going wrong in Shanxi. Mostly likely it is the provincial government

Other observations

5. The railway goes South-North along the Fen River (汾河）. The Fen River is polluted and water volume has been depleted (as are many other rivers in north China - over-irrigation). If you open the window, your hair will be stuck full of coal dust in 15 minutes.

6. Many small factories were seen along the coal area (e.g., between Linfen 临汾 and Pingyao 平遥 ). We saw coal everywhere along the river and the rail tracks. Many of these small factories store a lot of coal in their back yard. Apparently, it is cheaper to burn coal for power for them

7. When we passed through Xian 西安，construction was everywhere. It was reminiscent of Pudong in 1996-1997. If you ask me whether China's growth will continue for the next decade, you need to visit these cities. They are undergoing the same dramatic changes as the coastal cities on 10-15 ago. In 10-15 years, Xian will be like Shanghai, Taiyuan will be like Nanjing.

8. We took the cheap cabin train for a large part of our trip, mainly because there is only one cabin class ("Hard seat") available in the schedule. But we also wanted to talk to the average citizens. In a culture where people are shy in talking to strangers the train is perhaps the only exception, this has been so even back in the Mao era (when the society was more close).

On the way, we were inquired twice about the pork price in HK, by two groups of middle age ladies. They said 500g of pork cost 5-7RMB last year and it cost 17.5RMB now. To them pork price is like gasoline price to the American.

I asked my mom when I went back to HK. Apparently she failed to notice the difference. After some questioning, my conclusion is that the price hike was probably less than 50% in HK. It is understandable that the price hike was much more noticeable in Shanxi, because all the cost come from the real cost of "manufacturing" the pork, i.e. rearing. Whereas in HK, or perhaps in coastal province the "value-added" (transportation, middle man, distribution) represent a large portion of the price, which has not changed as dramatically.

(similar observation on the change in gasoline price in US vs HK, while crude oil price hiked in the past few years. The percentage increase in US was much higher than that in HK, as the base in HK was much larger.)

Going into the GFW

Will stay for a while inside the GFW.

Probably much less blogging here, please also check the msn blog which I had sort of abandoned since this year. I will proably post there if I find the GFW too time comsuming to tackle.

Meanwhile, enjoy this cross-strait link via ESWN, perhaps a much better gauge of what the people inside the GFW think about the other side of the strait, which is quite different from what you read from the Angry-youth over the internet.

help - accessing blogspot from inside the evil GFW

I will be spending a lot of times inside the evil GFW, after the untimely blocking of blogspot. I understand that there are ways to access these blocked sites, proxy servers/etc. But many of them are very slow, and may not work well with the javascripts/etc blogger.

I would appreciate if anyone could let me know how to do this. my email is sunbinblog (at) gmail (dot) com.

Many thanks in advance.

Economists Against Protectionism - WSJ.com

Economists Against Protectionism - WSJ.com

Economists Against Protectionism

By PAT TOOMEY
August 1, 2007; Page A15

On May 4, 1930, 1,028 economists signed a petition urging Congress and President Herbert Hoover to reject the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, arguing that "increased restrictive duties would . . . operate, in general, to increase the prices which domestic consumers would have to pay." Neither Congress nor the president listened, but the stock market certainly did.

Though many associate the Great Depression with the stock market crash on Oct. 29, 1929, the market actually rallied during the six months following Black Tuesday, while the defeat of Smoot-Hawley appeared likely. The market turned south again in April 1930 as those hopes of defeat gradually dimmed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank a full 8%, from 250 to 230, over just two trading days in June 1930, in direct response to the Senate's passage of Smoot-Hawley and Hoover's announcement that he would sign it. Exacerbated by other flawed governmental policies, an international trade war continued to drive the market down until the Dow hit a low of 41 on July 8, 1932, having lost 89% of its value from its September, 1929 high. It would be 25 years before the market recovered its 1929 peak.

Unfortunately, Congress is suffering from a bad case of amnesia. Over the past several months, protectionism has reached a fever pitch with lawmakers in both Houses clamoring to attach their names to as many as 50 anti-trade bills.

In the Senate, Max Baucus (D., Mont.) and Chuck Grassley (R., Iowa) have joined longtime protectionists, Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) and Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.), in sponsoring legislation to punish China for currency intervention. Tomorrow, hearings in the House Ways and Means Committee commence with a host of protectionist measures on the agenda, including legislation by Reps. Timothy Ryan (D., Ohio) and Duncan Hunter (R., Calif.) that would allow the Commerce Department to increase duties on China. Not to be outdone, the top-tier Democratic presidential candidates are falling over themselves to reject the free trade policies of Bill Clinton's Democratic Party.

In this respect, Congress hasn't changed much over the past 77 years. Thankfully, economics hasn't changed much either: 77 years after 1,028 economists stood athwart protectionism yelling "stop!" a new batch of economists are just as determined to turn back the rising protectionist tide.

The Club for Growth is disseminating a petition advising Congress "against imposing retaliatory trade measures against China." Like its historical counterpart, this petition is signed by 1,028 economists from the left and the right. They come from all 50 states and include four Nobel laureates, three former chairmen of the Council of Economic Advisors, former members of Congress, a former Treasury secretary, and economics professors from our country's most prestigious universities.

While the signatories on this petition will certainly disagree on a host of other issues -- at least 20 signed a 2003 petition against the Bush tax cuts -- they all agree that, in the words of the petition, "there is no foundation in economics that supports punitive tariffs."
Adam Smith long ago observed that "It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family, never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy." As members of Congress should know -- but unfortunately don't -- the maxim of the family applies equally to a nation. This simple truth explains the irresistible logic of free trade.

Free trade among and between people of various nations is the mechanism that allows producers to maximize their comparative advantage while consumers maximize the value they receive for their dollar. Free trade allows American producers to sell jets and software to the Chinese, while American consumers buy toys and apparel from China -- a win-win proposition for both buyer and seller.

Protectionists attempt to disrupt the market's natural tendency to seek efficiency by imposing tariffs in order to artificially increase the price of foreign goods relative to domestic competition. Thus, tariffs are simply a tax on American consumers, and it would be Americans, more than the Chinese, who pay the price. The very people Sens. Schumer and Graham claim to help will suffer from the higher prices, fewer jobs and potential trade war that will result from their legislation.

As the Club for Growth petition demonstrates, support for free trade is virtually universal among reputable economists. More importantly, history has shown the devastating consequences of protectionist policies. Let's hope Congress steps back from this precipice and rejects the misguided policies of Smoot, Hawley, Schumer and Graham.

Mr. Toomey is the president of the Club for Growth. More information about the petition is at http://www.clubforgrowth.org/

related:
Protectionism - the real threat to growth, stability
Stand Up, Free-Trade Democrats!
THE PETITION TO STOP PROTECTIONIST MADNESS

The net effect of Little Boy and Fat Man

Little Boy killed about 70,000 people in Hiroshima in 6 August, 1945.

Fat Man killed another 40,000 in Nagasaki on 9 August, 1945.

Tojo and Emperor Hirohito had 3 full days to save the people in Nagasaki. They decided to wait and take chance.

A total of 110,000 were killed as a result of these two bombs. Including the injured who are dead subsequently, the number could increase by another 20-35%.

Of the killed, perhaps only 10% or so are military pesonnels, plus another 15-30% engaged in military industry, as shown in the maps here.

Total death of the atomic bombs in WWII in then about 110,000 to 140,000 (according to the wiki source above).

---

Total death in the Asian Theatre of WWII, according to wiki data, is about 29M (including civilians and military personnels).

Total number of days of WWII (from 8/Dec/1941 to 15/Aug/1945) is 1464 days, For China, the war started on 7/Jul/1937 and the total length is 2961 days.

The death/day, according to calculation here, is 12,889 people per day. i.e. had the war been prolonged for one more day, about 13,000 more people from all countries would have died.

---

Therefore, if Little Boy and Fat Man had together ended the war by 140,000/12889 = 11 days earlier, they had reduced the total number of people died in the war.

If they ended the war half a year earlier, it would have saved (183-11=172) x 12889= 2.2 million people

If the war was ended one year earlier as a result, the number of people saved would have been (365-11=354) x 12889 = 4.6 million lives

The Japanese lives that were killed per day is 1790. So from Japan's perspective the sacrifice of the people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki would be "worthwhile" if the war was ended 140,000/1,790 = 78 days earlier. (i.e. less than 3 months)

Of course it is unfair to the people who lived in these two cities, especially those who were not even engaged in the military industry, who were the ladies, the elderlies, and the children. The tragedy is that it had to take all their lives to convince Tojo and Emperor Hirohito (Showa) that the war was over for them.

But in a war the victims are quite random. If it were not for them, it would be the residents in Tokyo...

---

The Tokyo firebomb killed 80,000 to 100,000 Japanese people.

If Little Boy and Fat Man had avoided 2 such firebombs which might have been launched subsequently, they had reduced the net casualties of Japanese civilians.

---

Total death in the Battle of Okinawa is about 77,500 (12.5k US soldiers, and 66k Japanese militia and soldiers).

If 2 of such battles were avoided as a result of Little Boy and Fat Man, they would have saved 155000-140000=15000 lives.

The population of Okinawa is about 1% of the total population of Japan. If conventional war had to go to Tokyo from the south, at least 60-75% of Japan would be battleground like Okinawa.
i.e. total death would have been 60-75 x 77,500 = 4.6-5.8M people.

---

Fumio Kyuma might have been kissing up his US ally, or what he said was not exactly the right reason. The fact that the two bombs were necessary was something that could really "not be helped", as Fyuma stated. But to characterise the strategic importance of the two bombs as the beginning of the Cold War is gravely wrong, and is a great dis-respect to those who died in the two cities.

• The Soviet entered the war on August 8, 1945. After Little Boy was dropped, and shortly before Fat Man arrived. Therefore, it its totally against any logic that US dropped the 2 bombs to prevent the Soviets from entering. The more realistic scenario is, that, Tojo and his clan is more afraid of the Soviets than the American, and decided to surrender.

Remember this when you visit Hiroshima or Nagasaki next time. Remember the sacrifice of the innocent Japanese who died in August 1945. Remember how many lives they have saved for their own country, and for the world.

Remember Manhattan Project. Remember Oppenheimer. Remember Einstein.

Let's do our own Queen's Pier Poll

The arrogant HK government plastic government refused to release it "poll".

Let's do it ourselves.

Geo-stats Jan-Jun 2007

EditGrid Spreadsheet by user/sunbin.

You may wonder how I got different visitors from all these 150 countries, and why there is some traffic even though I almost stopped posting for a few months in this period of time. My page stats here is the answer.

EditGrid Spreadsheet by user/sunbin.